The Observer Notebook · 2026-10-04

The fact horizon

How much of a friend's memory must leak before her observation can never be undone?

Known, reproduced

A friend measures a qubit in a sealed lab and stores the answer in her memory, then her thinking scrambles it across n memory qubits. Wigner, outside, can still run everything backwards and undo the measurement, as long as he holds the whole lab. Now let the environment take memory qubits one at a time. F is the most coherence Wigner can still restore. A Local Friendliness test (a Bell-type check on the friend story) needs F above 0.707. The exact run found the line is crossed at a sharp point: just over half the memory.

LIVE

Leaking the memory, one qubit at a time

Replay · exact statevector values · scrambled friend REPLAYS THE EXACT RUN (n = 8 AND 10) · THE REAL RUN WENT TO n = 12
m = 0

starting

left · the friend's memory (brass lines are her scrambling thoughts). Grey tethers mark the m qubits that were already tangled with the outside before she looked (an "old friend"). Ember qubits have been taken by the environment · right · F after k qubits are taken, from the exact run. Dashed line: 0.707. Dotted line: π/4, the best a blind look can do. Moss marker: k* = ⌊(n−m)/2⌋ + 1. Which qubits go first is cosmetic here: the run averaged over random scramblers, so only the count matters.

k* = n/2 + 1fact threshold, 5/8 to 9/16
EXACT SIM
18/18old-friend rule ⌊(n−m)/2⌋+1
EXACT SIM
π/4 ≈ 0.785blind look, any basis: never a fact
EXACT SIM
≈ 2.2gate-error tolerance ε*·√gates
EXACT SIM
01

In plain words

With half the memory gone, Wigner can still restore F = 3/4, which beats 0.707. One more qubit and F drops to about 0.41. At that point the outcome is a fact: no operation by anyone can undo it well enough to pass the test.

An old friend, whose memory was already partly tangled with the outside, crosses sooner. In the run, a friend with m = n−1 old qubits became a fact on the first qubit taken (F = 0.60).

Looking is not enough. Measuring every memory qubit in a basis the friend's dynamics does not fix leaves F = π/4, still above 0.707. A look acts like taking the qubits only when the looker knows the scrambler and can decode it. Copying the outcome into many qubits makes it a fact after one qubit; scrambling erases that redundancy and pushes every copy count back to k* = n/2 + 1.

Prior artRead in full: Hausmann-Renner 2504.03835, Walleghem 2507.05369, Engineer-Baumann 2507.21221. None states the threshold, but it is a short corollary of their dictionary plus Hayden-Preskill (the young vs old black hole result, read as a friend).

Next clickA synthesis note for Baumann and Hausmann (running now).

Every piece maps onto known math; the friend framing that ties them together is the new part. The friend here is a fully scrambled (random) memory, simulated exactly up to 12 qubits. The panel replays the exact numbers for n = 8 and 10; it does not recompute them in your browser. A real friend that copies rather than scrambles crosses much earlier.

Nearby on the bench